2020 Iron Bowl: Auburn at Alabama odds, picks and prediction

Geoff Clark
USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Auburn Tigers (5-2 overall, 5-2 SEC) play the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0, 7-0) Saturday in the Iron Bowl at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Auburn-Alabama college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The Crimson Tide are No. 1 and the Tigers are ranked No. 19 in Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Auburn at Alabama: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:09 p.m. ET.

  • Money line : Auburn +850 (bet $100 to win $850) | Alabama -1667 (bet $1,667 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS : Auburn +25 (-110) | Alabama -25 (-110)
  • Over/Under : 62.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Auburn at Alabama: Three things to know

  1. Alabama dismantled Kentucky 63-3 last week in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide featured their ground game against the Wildcats carrying the ball 40 times for 226 yards and 5 touchdowns. RB Najee Harris scored twice, which put him at the top of the SEC in rushing touchdowns with 16 and he has the second-most rushing yards in the SEC.
  2. Auburn took down Tennessee at home 30-17 and covered as a 10-point favorite. The Tigers defense made big plays, including 4 sacks and a 100-yard pick-six by S Smoke Monday. Auburn is plus-4 in turnover differential on the season and the only games the Tigers have lost this year have been when they've turned the ball over more than the opponent.
  3. Alabama coach Nick Saban tested positive for COVID for the second time and is expected to miss Saturday's game.

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Auburn at Alabama:Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Alabama 38, Auburn 28

Money line (ML)

Alabama leads the Iron Bowl series 45-32-1, but the Crimson Tide lost last year's meeting 48-45 failing to cover as 3.5-point favorites. It was Alabama's fourth loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl since Saban took over the Crimson Tide in 2007.

I make Auburn a live dog in this game because it actually lost less production from last year's team than Alabama did (according to ESPN). Obviously, the Tigers didn't replace that production as well, but I lean to sprinkling a one-fifth unit wager on AUBURN +850.

Against the spread (ATS)

Four scores are a lot to spot a team that won the previous year's meeting. At what point would Auburn stop trying to score? I guess if Alabama gets up 35 we could see the Tigers throw in the towel.

If Auburn cannot keep up with Alabama's No. 3 scoring offense, at least we know the backdoor is open. I cannot imagine Saban's absence gives Alabama an edge here.

GIMME AUBURN +25 (-110) for 1 unit.

Over/Under(O/U)

There should be some sticker shock when seeing this total given this game is an SEC-rivalry game between traditionally strong defensive programs. But each side's defense has dropped off from last season. They combined for 93 points in the 2019 Iron Bowl.

Plus, both offenses are playing at nearly the same level and it's the same starting quarterbacks as last season. I'll take OVER 62.5 (-110) for 1 unit.

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